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McKenzie Milton Is on Pace to Break His Own School Records

Toughest Tests Toward The End of UCF's Schedule

McKenzie Milton (Photo: Derek Warden)
McKenzie Milton (Photo: Derek Warden)

We're four games into the 2018 season and McKenzie Milton is already on pace to break a couple of his own school records.

After wrecking Pitt for another six total touchdowns, KZ was named American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week for the third time in four games:

Mind you that UCF has the 5th-best rushing offense in FBS at 272.8 yards per game.

Right now, KZ has thrown for 1,223 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. We extrapolated that out to a 14-game season (which would include all 12 regular season games, plus the AAC Championship Game and one bowl game) and checked that pace against his 2017 season and UCF's school records.

Here's where he stands:

Player Comp% Yards Yards/Game TD Passes INTs Efficiency
Milton (2018 thru 4 Gms) 61.3% 1223 305.8 13 3 163.24
Milton ('18 14-Game Pace) 61.3% 4280.5 305.8 45.5 10.5 163.24
Milton (2017) 67.1% 4037 310.5 37 9 179.3
School Records 73.6% 4037 342.8 37 -- 179.3*

So, as we can see, KZ is lighting it up. He's on pace to break his own school records for passing yards and TD passes, and that's with a 6-point drop-off in his completion percentage and a 16-point drop in his Efficiency from last year.

Now let's see what the upcoming schedule has in store:

Opponent Pass Efficiency Defense FBS Rank Pass Yards Allowed/Game FBS Rank
SMU 144.39 98th 223.6 66th
@ Memphis 131.08 72nd 168.6 T-20th
@ ECU 127.42 62nd 213.0 56th
Temple 107.87 24th 187.0 35th
Navy 139.83 90th 230.3 77th
Cincinnati 89.70 1st 158.8 9th
@ USF 94.43 4th 162.3 13th

Assuming everything holds up, those last two games against Cincinnati and USF are going to be the biggest challenges for Milton and the Knights' passing attack, followed by moderate challenges from Temple and Memphis.

So Milton has a chance to run up the numbers in his next five games before facing two very good pass defenses to close out the regular season. We'll see if that pace holds up.