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Let's See Where UCF Might Land in This Week's Polls

Knights Could Move Up But not as far as they'd like

Adrian Killins (Photo: Derek Warden)
Adrian Killins (Photo: Derek Warden)

With Week 1 nearly in the books, we know a lot more than we did when the preseason polls came out. So it stands to reason that UCF may move up in the polls when they come out.

UCF landed at #21 in the preseason AP Top 25, and #23 in the Amway Coaches' Poll. But with the results nearly in from Week 1, let's see how some of the teams ahead of the Knights fared.

First, the AP Top 25:

Rank Team Result
16 TCU W vs. Southern 55-7
17 West Virginia W vs. Tennessee 40-14 (in Charlotte, N.C.)
18 Mississippi State W vs. Stephen F. Austin 63-6
19 Florida State Face one another in Tallahassee Monday 7 p.m.
20 Virginia Tech
21 UCF W at UConn 56-17
22 Boise State W vs. Troy 56-20
23 Texas L at Maryland 34-29
24 Oregon W vs. Bowling Green 58-24
25 LSU W vs. #8 Miami 33-17

So this is where UCF kinda gets the shaft a bit. Pretty much everyone in the five slots ahead of them took care of business, and Florida State and Virginia Tech, who occupy the next two spots ahead of UCF, play each other Monday night on ESPN, so only one of them may move down (FSU is a 7.5-point favorite).

Boise State should not leapfrog UCF by virtue of the fact that they blew out a Sun Belt team in Troy at home, while UCF poleaxed UConn in a road conference game.

The other thing to watch is what the voters do with LSU. The AP voters might very well jump them ahead of UCF, especially since they defeated Miami in convincing fashion on a neutral field. It's also likely that Miami may stay ahead of UCF in the polls, since they wouldn't drop the Hurricanes too far.

Now let's look at the Amway Coaches' Poll:

Rank Team Result
16 TCU W vs. Southern 55-7
17 Virginia Tech at Florida State Monday 7 p.m.
18 Mississippi State W vs. Stephen F. Austin 63-6
19 Florida State vs. Virginia Tech Monday 7 p.m.
20 West Virginia W vs. Tennessee 40-14 (in Charlotte, N.C.)
21 Texas L at Maryland 34-29
22 Boise State W vs. Troy 56-20
23 UCF W at UConn 56-17
24 LSU W vs. #8 Miami 33-17
25 Oregon State L at #3 Ohio State 77-31

Some key observations here:

  • Texas should definitely move down and maybe out of the top 25 after looking bad against an average Maryland team that came out with its hair on fire.
  • Again, LSU's impressive win over #8 Miami may give voters a reason to leapfrog them over UCF while keeping Miami in the top 20 or so.
  • Boise State is going to move up, but I wouldn't put it past the coaches to keep them ahead of UCF no matter where they move.
  • Oregon State got walloped by Ohio State so they should move out, but that may pave the way for South Carolina, Florida or Oregon to move into the Top 25 in their stead.
  • It remains to be seen where the loser of the Virginia Tech/FSU game will land. They may not fall below UCF depending on how close the game is.

All that said, I project UCF to move up one spot in the AP Top 25, to #20. In the Amway Coaches' Poll, I'd expect UCF to move up two spots to #21 if Florida State loses, but only one spot if Virginia Tech loses on Monday night.

The polls come out Tuesday.