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ELOLines: Picking Week 2 Games in The American

Plus an NFL Game of the Week

Image: Wikimedia Commons
Image: Wikimedia Commons

Welcome to the debut of ELOLines, where I will look at college football games involving UCF, the AAC and UCF opponents on the schedule from Vegas' perspective each week.

Last week I picked UCF to cover the -24 and go over the total of 70. I also picked Oklahoma to cover the 19 points against FAU. This week I look at the full slate. Games that involve FCS opponents do not have a spread usually. So we will not discuss those games.

Friday Night

TCU (-21.5) at SMU (O/U 58.5)

  • SMU is coming off a 46-23 loss at North Texas.
  • SMU is 2-5 in against the spread in the last seven home games as an underdog of 20 points or more.
  • Both teams have combined to go OVER in the over/under number in seven of the last ten meetings.
  • SMU is 0-5 in last five vs Spread
  • TCU is 6-3 in last 9 road games vs Spread

Pick: TCU (-21.5) and OVER


Arizona at Houston (-4.5, O/U 70.5)

Noon on ABC/ESPN2

Note- Houston coming off a win on road at Rice and take on Arizona who lost at home opener to BYU which marked new Wildcats Head Coach Kevin Sumlin debut. Sumlin is former Head Coach at Houston.

  • Houston is 7-14 in last 21 games against the spread.
  • Houston is 4-2 in last 6 home games against the spread.
  • 8 of last 10 games in Houston have gone under the total.

Pick: Arizona (+4.5), UNDER

Georgia Tech (-3.5) at South Florida (O/U 59)

Noon on ABC/ESPN2

South Florida is coming off a 34-14 win at home against Elon.

  • South Florida is 2-5 in last seven games vs the spread
  • Georgia Tech is 1-4-1 in the last 6 games vs the spread.
  • Georgia Tech is 5-9-1 in last 15 games on the road against the spread.
  • South Florida is 11-1 Straight up in last 12 home games while Georgia Tech is 1-4 straight up in last five games.

Pick: South Florida (+3.5), UNDER

Air Force at Florida Atlantic (-9, O/U 65.5)

2:00 p.m.

The Owls got destroyed at Oklahoma. This Saturday FAU opens at home against Air Force. The game opened with FAU an 8-point favorite and has gone up to 9.

  • 4 of last 6 FAU home games have gone under the total.
  • Air Force is 2-4 straight up in last 6 games on the road.
  • FAU is 6-1 in last 7 home games vs spread

Pick: FAU (-9), UNDER

North Carolina (-16.5) at East Carolina (O/U 60)

3:30 p.m. on ESPNU

A battle of two future UCF opponents coming off losses - UNC lost at California 24-17 while ECU lost at home to North Carolina A&T 28-23. The spread opened at 10.5 and has jumped all the way to 17 points

  • North Carolina is 4-0-1 in last five games against the spread and 6-2 in last 8 games vs the spread vs the Pirates.
  • East Carolina is 4-19 vs Spread in last 23 games and 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home games.
  • The Total has gone under in 7 of last 10 UNC Road games.

Pick- North Carolina (-16.5), UNDER

Buffalo at Temple (-4, O/U 51.5)

3:30 on ESPN3

Temple is coming off an embarrassing loss to FCS Villanova

  • Temple is 2-5 in last seven games vs the spread at home and 1-4 straight up
  • Temple is 4-1 vs Buffalo in last five games vs spread.
  • 10 of last 11 Buffalo road games has gone UNDER
  • Buffalo is 4-9 in last 13 games vs spread

Pick: Buffalo (+4), UNDER

Memphis (-7) at Navy (O/U 70)

3:30 on CBS Sports Network

This game started at -5 and has gone up to -6.5. Navy lost on the road at Hawaii while Memphis opened with an easy win over Mercer. This will be new Memphis Quarterback Brady White's first road start.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 games involving Navy.
  • Memphis is 6-2 Against the Spread in last 8 games.
  • Navy is 20-5 at home in last 25 games straight up

Pick: Navy (+7), OVER

Cincinnati at Miami (OH) (-1, O/U 51)

Cincinnati coming off a win at UCLA. Will the Bearcats have a letdown at Miami (Ohio)? Miami (Ohio) defeated Cincinnati last year.

  • Cincinnati is 5-13 in last 18 games vs spread
  • Cincinnati is 1-4 in last 5 games vs Miami Ohio vs Spread
  • 4 of last 5 games between Cincinnati and Miami Ohio have gone UNDER

Pick: Cincinnati (+1), UNDER

Tulsa at Texas (-23, O/U 61.5)

  • Tulsa is 3-7 in last 10 games vs spread
  • The Total Has Gone OVER in 10 of last 15 Tulsa games

Pick: Texas (-23), OVER

Penn State (-8.5, O/U 56) at Pittsburgh

8pm on ABC
  • Penn State is 1-4-1 in last 6 games vs Spread vs Pitt
  • Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in last 6 games between Penn State and Pittsburgh

Pick : Pittsburgh (+8.5) and Over

UConn at Boise State (-31.5, O/U 64)

10:15pm on ESPNU

UConn of course lost to UCF, 56-17. Boise State is coming off a blowout win at Troy.

  • Boise State is 4-13-1 in last 18 home games vs spread
  • The Total has gone OVER in 4 of last 6 Boise State games
  • UConn is 5-13 in last 18 games vs spread
  • The Total has gone UNDER in 15 of last 21 Boise State Home games.

Pick: UConn (+31.5) and UNDER

Black and Gold Banneret NFL Game of the Week

Seattle at Denver (-3) (O/U 43)

Each week, the staff at Black and Gold Banneret will pick an NFL Game of the Week that involves a UCF player. This week we pick the Seahawks/Broncos game in honor of Shaquem Griffin making the start at Linebacker for the Seahawks, along with his brother Shaquill Griffin who will be starting at cornerback.

  • Seahawks are 3-6-1 in last 10 vs Spread
  • Seahawks are 4-7-1 in last 12 vs Spread on road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of last 6 Broncos games

Pick: Broncos (-3) and UNDER