UCF 3 TD underdogs against Cincinnati

This hasn't been UCF's year. As the Knights try and build back to the prominence they held just a few years ago, they've fallen behind other group of 5 schools. BYU, Coastal Carolina, and this week's opponent Cincinnati.

The Bearcats have been able to do what UCF couldn't. They got into the top-4 and are now entrenched in the college football playoff discussion. That said, UCF now stands as a gatekeeper of sorts. If Cincinnati is going to have any hope of being the first Group of 5 school to make the playoffs, they can't afford a lose to UCF.

While UCF has proven a strong opponent in the past, the public doesn't view them as such this year.


UCF is a massive underdog. The Knights are 21.5 point underdogs, and they're given +950 odds to win the game outright. That's an implied 9.5% chance to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is given -1250 odds, or an implied 92.6% chance to win the game.

In the eyes of the oddsmakers, this game is a mismatch. It won't even be competitive. History has a little something different to say.

Matchup History

Cincinnati and UCF have played each other just 6 times in their history. Those games have been split 3 a piece.

The bad news for UCF is that Cincinnati as won the last 2 matchups these teams played. The good news is that both were decided by just a field goal.

UCF and Cincinnati has quickly become the marquee rivalry in the AAC and will eventually become one in the Big 12. A 3 TD margin just doesn't reflect the recent history of these rivals.


UCF doesn't need this win. They want this win. It's the opportunity to get back on the national stage and show that they are still a premium team. It doesn't hurt that it would be an earth shattering defeat for one of their biggest rivals.

This game could have a lot to say about how Group of 5 schools are looked at for the next decade plus. It's just about what role UCF is going to play in that story. Are they the spoilers or another victim?