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Let’s check in with the latest UCF Rankings, with some shake-ups in the top ten after an eventful weekend before the conference championships.
Remember, the point of these rankings is not to predict the CFP participants or to say who’s playing the best now. Rather, it’s a system for ranking all FBS teams based on their full body of work throughout the entire season, with increasing emphasis placed on the more difficult games a team plays at the end of the season.
Of note this week:
- Alabama, Clemson, BYU and Notre Dame remain in the top four.
- Coastal Carolina leaped Cincinnati into the #5 slot after their road win at Troy.
- North Carolina’s blowout win at Miami vaulted them 14 spots, while Miami dropped 20.
- UCF fell out of the top ten even though they didn’t play because a few teams finished out their schedule this past week with wins.
- Interestingly, #3 BYU vs. #12 UCF is an EXCELLENT bowl match-up.
View the full rankings here:
Week 15 UCF Rankings
Rk | Team | W | L | W% | Opp W% | SOS | Rating | Conf | Last Wk | Move |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | W | L | W% | Opp W% | SOS | Rating | Conf | Last Wk | Move |
1 | Alabama | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | .528 | 18.512 | 0.9385 | SEC | 1 | - |
2 | Clemson | 9 | 1 | .900 | .524 | 18.638 | 0.6835 | ACC | 2 | - |
3 | BYU | 9 | 1 | .900 | .494 | 17.934 | 0.6645 | Ind | 3 | - |
4 | Notre Dame | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | .410 | 15.525 | 0.5778 | ACC | 4 | - |
5 | Coastal Carolina | 11 | 0 | 1.000 | .495 | 20.818 | 0.5512 | SBC | 6 | 1 |
6 | Cincinnati | 8 | 0 | 1.000 | .514 | 13.512 | 0.5135 | AAC | 5 | -1 |
7 | Florida | 8 | 2 | .800 | .439 | 14.694 | 0.4667 | SEC | 7 | - |
8 | North Carolina | 8 | 3 | .727 | .469 | 17.358 | 0.4105 | ACC | 22 | 14 |
9 | Iowa | 6 | 2 | .750 | .415 | 11.210 | 0.3989 | B1G | 14 | 5 |
10 | Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | .778 | .420 | 12.473 | 0.3959 | Big 12 | 8 | -2 |
11 | Louisiana | 9 | 1 | .900 | .562 | 20.459 | 0.3744 | SBC | 10 | -1 |
12 | UCF | 6 | 3 | .667 | .491 | 14.308 | 0.3727 | AAC | 9 | -3 |
13 | Buffalo | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | .317 | 5.846 | 0.3650 | MAC | 15 | 2 |
14 | Iowa State | 8 | 2 | .800 | .519 | 16.032 | 0.3568 | Big 12 | 11 | -3 |
15 | Georgia | 7 | 2 | .778 | .441 | 15.388 | 0.3328 | SEC | 24 | 9 |
16 | Marshall | 7 | 1 | .875 | .390 | 10.274 | 0.3314 | CUSA | 12 | -4 |
17 | Liberty | 9 | 1 | .900 | .208 | 11.213 | 0.3265 | Ind | 13 | -4 |
18 | Ohio State | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | .436 | 6.494 | 0.2787 | B1G | 16 | -2 |
19 | Appalachian State | 8 | 3 | .727 | .478 | 18.056 | 0.2757 | SBC | 19 | - |
20 | Tulane | 6 | 5 | .545 | .508 | 19.219 | 0.2577 | AAC | 18 | -2 |
21 | Indiana | 6 | 1 | .857 | .453 | 10.605 | 0.2560 | B1G | 17 | -4 |
22 | San Jose State | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | .451 | 7.936 | 0.2192 | MWC | 23 | 1 |
23 | USC | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | .333 | 6.611 | 0.1984 | Pac-12 | 27 | 4 |
24 | Texas | 6 | 3 | .667 | .533 | 13.885 | 0.1954 | Big 12 | 21 | -3 |
25 | Boise State | 5 | 1 | .833 | .458 | 8.271 | 0.1736 | MWC | 33 | 8 |
26 | Tulsa | 6 | 1 | .857 | .540 | 13.420 | 0.1642 | AAC | 25 | -1 |
27 | Northwestern | 6 | 1 | .857 | .391 | 9.444 | 0.1636 | B1G | 32 | 5 |
28 | TCU | 6 | 4 | .600 | .504 | 15.648 | 0.1546 | Big 12 | 50 | 22 |
29 | Texas A&M | 7 | 1 | .875 | .433 | 13.843 | 0.1506 | SEC | 29 | - |
30 | Toledo | 4 | 2 | .667 | .389 | 7.899 | 0.1444 | MAC | 30 | - |
31 | Ball State | 5 | 1 | .833 | .472 | 8.599 | 0.1426 | MAC | 28 | -3 |
32 | Rice | 2 | 3 | .400 | .516 | 6.861 | 0.1362 | CUSA | 26 | -6 |
33 | UAB | 5 | 3 | .625 | .517 | 12.245 | 0.1090 | CUSA | 43 | 10 |
34 | Oregon | 3 | 2 | .600 | .403 | 6.378 | 0.0987 | Pac-12 | 35 | 1 |
35 | Air Force | 3 | 2 | .600 | .517 | 6.857 | 0.0917 | MWC | 39 | 4 |
36 | San Diego State | 4 | 3 | .571 | .546 | 13.353 | 0.0833 | MWC | 42 | 6 |
37 | Nevada | 6 | 2 | .750 | .420 | 11.510 | 0.0752 | MWC | 31 | -6 |
38 | Ohio | 2 | 1 | .667 | .222 | 2.936 | 0.0722 | MAC | 40 | 2 |
39 | Western Michigan | 4 | 2 | .667 | .417 | 8.271 | 0.0700 | MAC | 38 | -1 |
40 | Miami | 8 | 2 | .800 | .536 | 17.225 | 0.0658 | ACC | 20 | -20 |
41 | Oklahoma State | 6 | 3 | .667 | .498 | 14.223 | 0.0615 | Big 12 | 63 | 22 |
42 | UCLA | 3 | 3 | .500 | .497 | 8.220 | 0.0544 | Pac-12 | 41 | -1 |
43 | Wyoming | 2 | 4 | .333 | .437 | 7.911 | 0.0541 | MWC | 34 | -9 |
44 | Utah | 2 | 2 | .500 | .721 | 5.870 | 0.0540 | Pac-12 | 62 | 18 |
45 | Arizona State | 1 | 2 | .333 | .500 | 3.779 | 0.0514 | Pac-12 | 56 | 11 |
46 | Army | 8 | 2 | .800 | .348 | 11.879 | 0.0315 | Ind | 58 | 12 |
47 | Fresno State | 3 | 3 | .500 | .325 | 7.682 | 0.0264 | MWC | 45 | -2 |
48 | Georgia Southern | 7 | 5 | .583 | .468 | 20.255 | 0.0238 | SBC | 37 | -11 |
49 | SMU | 7 | 3 | .700 | .450 | 17.826 | 0.0229 | AAC | 48 | -1 |
50 | Colorado | 4 | 1 | .800 | .434 | 6.723 | 0.0182 | Pac-12 | 36 | -14 |
51 | Georgia State | 5 | 4 | .556 | .525 | 14.228 | 0.0155 | SBC | 49 | -2 |
52 | Louisville | 4 | 7 | .364 | .502 | 18.592 | 0.0141 | ACC | 70 | 18 |
53 | Washington | 3 | 1 | .750 | .358 | 4.539 | 0.0072 | Pac-12 | 51 | -2 |
54 | UTSA | 7 | 4 | .636 | .468 | 16.816 | 0.0050 | CUSA | 52 | -2 |
55 | FAU | 5 | 3 | .625 | .398 | 10.814 | -0.0153 | CUSA | 47 | -8 |
56 | NC State | 8 | 3 | .727 | .485 | 17.851 | -0.0159 | ACC | 53 | -3 |
57 | Penn State | 3 | 5 | .375 | .536 | 12.261 | -0.0167 | B1G | 66 | 9 |
58 | Kent State | 3 | 1 | .750 | .375 | 4.886 | -0.0168 | MAC | 54 | -4 |
59 | Minnesota | 3 | 3 | .500 | .398 | 7.671 | -0.0232 | B1G | 68 | 9 |
60 | Miami (OH) | 2 | 1 | .667 | .667 | 4.303 | -0.0287 | MAC | 57 | -3 |
61 | Central Michigan | 3 | 3 | .500 | .528 | 8.380 | -0.0296 | MAC | 61 | - |
62 | Stanford | 3 | 2 | .600 | .547 | 6.725 | -0.0300 | Pac-12 | 60 | -2 |
63 | Eastern Michigan | 2 | 4 | .333 | .569 | 8.700 | -0.0324 | MAC | 59 | -4 |
64 | Wisconsin | 2 | 3 | .400 | .617 | 7.499 | -0.0488 | B1G | 44 | -20 |
65 | Troy | 5 | 6 | .455 | .444 | 19.547 | -0.0615 | SBC | 55 | -10 |
66 | Wake Forest | 4 | 4 | .500 | .458 | 13.039 | -0.0621 | ACC | 46 | -20 |
67 | Purdue | 2 | 4 | .333 | .509 | 7.713 | -0.0630 | B1G | 65 | -2 |
68 | Ole Miss | 4 | 4 | .500 | .440 | 10.762 | -0.0642 | SEC | 67 | -1 |
69 | Oregon State | 2 | 4 | .333 | .506 | 8.573 | -0.0765 | Pac-12 | 64 | -5 |
70 | California | 1 | 3 | .250 | .508 | 5.080 | -0.0808 | Pac-12 | 69 | -1 |
71 | Pittsburgh | 6 | 5 | .545 | .504 | 19.238 | -0.0832 | ACC | 88 | 17 |
72 | Charlotte | 2 | 4 | .333 | .468 | 7.760 | -0.1002 | CUSA | 72 | - |
73 | West Virginia | 5 | 4 | .556 | .420 | 13.483 | -0.1046 | Big-12 | 71 | -2 |
74 | Auburn | 6 | 4 | .600 | .505 | 16.760 | -0.1118 | SEC | 87 | 13 |
75 | Michigan | 2 | 4 | .333 | .465 | 8.307 | -0.1237 | B1G | 77 | 2 |
76 | Maryland | 2 | 3 | .400 | .593 | 7.246 | -0.1255 | B1G | 73 | -3 |
77 | Washington State | 1 | 2 | .333 | .644 | 4.218 | -0.1454 | Pac-12 | 79 | 2 |
78 | Rutgers | 3 | 5 | .375 | .484 | 12.050 | -0.1480 | B1G | 83 | 5 |
79 | Houston | 3 | 4 | .429 | .603 | 11.375 | -0.1593 | AAC | 82 | 3 |
80 | Boston College | 6 | 5 | .545 | .475 | 18.751 | -0.1707 | ACC | 84 | 4 |
81 | Nebraska | 2 | 5 | .286 | .586 | 10.682 | -0.1762 | B1G | 80 | -1 |
82 | Hawai'i | 4 | 4 | .500 | .534 | 12.409 | -0.1779 | MWC | 89 | 7 |
83 | Virginia Tech | 5 | 6 | .455 | .608 | 19.767 | -0.1850 | ACC | 96 | 13 |
84 | Memphis | 7 | 3 | .700 | .429 | 14.634 | -0.1861 | AAC | 86 | 2 |
85 | Colorado State | 1 | 3 | .250 | .560 | 5.632 | -0.2103 | MWC | 90 | 5 |
86 | FIU | 0 | 5 | .000 | .468 | 5.337 | -0.2154 | CUSA | 91 | 5 |
87 | Virginia | 5 | 5 | .500 | .523 | 15.615 | -0.2192 | ACC | 74 | -13 |
88 | Southern Mississippi | 3 | 7 | .300 | .495 | 13.994 | -0.2237 | CUSA | 98 | 10 |
89 | East Carolina | 3 | 6 | .333 | .542 | 15.287 | -0.2274 | AAC | 93 | 4 |
90 | Illinois | 2 | 5 | .286 | .500 | 10.441 | -0.2359 | B1G | 78 | -12 |
91 | Northern Illinois | 0 | 6 | .000 | .667 | 9.336 | -0.2448 | MAC | 92 | 1 |
92 | Arizona | 0 | 5 | .000 | .677 | 7.458 | -0.2461 | Pac-12 | 85 | -7 |
93 | UTEP | 3 | 5 | .375 | .336 | 9.737 | -0.2464 | CUSA | 94 | 1 |
94 | New Mexico | 2 | 5 | .286 | .550 | 10.255 | -0.2481 | MWC | 97 | 3 |
95 | LSU | 4 | 5 | .444 | .506 | 15.293 | -0.2482 | SEC | 99 | 4 |
96 | Baylor | 2 | 7 | .222 | .541 | 15.212 | -0.2689 | Big 12 | 75 | -21 |
97 | Missouri | 5 | 4 | .556 | .473 | 13.431 | -0.2750 | SEC | 76 | -21 |
98 | North Texas | 4 | 5 | .444 | .407 | 11.490 | -0.2832 | CUSA | 100 | 2 |
99 | Western Kentucky | 5 | 6 | .455 | .480 | 16.539 | -0.2967 | CUSA | 101 | 2 |
100 | Louisiana Tech | 5 | 4 | .556 | .532 | 14.035 | -0.3029 | CUSA | 81 | -19 |
101 | Kentucky | 4 | 6 | .400 | .499 | 16.643 | -0.3214 | SEC | 105 | 4 |
102 | Texas Tech | 4 | 6 | .400 | .472 | 15.310 | -0.3237 | Big 12 | 103 | 1 |
103 | Middle Tennessee | 3 | 6 | .333 | .502 | 13.934 | -0.3262 | CUSA | 104 | 1 |
104 | Kansas State | 4 | 6 | .400 | .505 | 16.668 | -0.3380 | Big 12 | 107 | 3 |
105 | Tennessee | 3 | 6 | .333 | .551 | 16.837 | -0.3385 | SEC | 113 | 8 |
106 | Arkansas State | 4 | 7 | .364 | .481 | 17.774 | -0.3888 | SBC | 110 | 4 |
107 | UMass | 0 | 4 | .000 | .746 | 6.390 | -0.4019 | Ind | 114 | 7 |
108 | Michigan State | 2 | 5 | .286 | .650 | 11.131 | -0.4030 | B1G | 106 | -2 |
109 | Mississippi State | 2 | 7 | .222 | .544 | 15.105 | -0.4067 | SEC | 108 | -1 |
110 | Florida State | 3 | 6 | .333 | .517 | 16.481 | -0.4079 | ACC | 119 | 9 |
111 | UNLV | 0 | 6 | .000 | .609 | 9.049 | -0.4191 | MWC | 109 | -2 |
112 | Utah State | 1 | 5 | .167 | .590 | 8.517 | -0.4255 | MWC | 115 | 3 |
113 | Arkansas | 3 | 7 | .300 | .611 | 18.079 | -0.4262 | SEC | 95 | -18 |
114 | Akron | 1 | 5 | .167 | .625 | 9.105 | -0.4509 | MAC | 102 | -12 |
115 | Bowling Green | 0 | 5 | .000 | .650 | 6.967 | -0.4541 | MAC | 117 | 2 |
116 | Temple | 1 | 6 | .143 | .480 | 10.464 | -0.4607 | AAC | 116 | - |
117 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 7 | .300 | .560 | 19.943 | -0.4666 | ACC | 111 | -6 |
118 | Navy | 3 | 7 | .300 | .601 | 17.868 | -0.4878 | AAC | 112 | -6 |
119 | South Alabama | 4 | 7 | .364 | .499 | 19.124 | -0.5135 | SBC | 121 | 2 |
120 | Vanderbilt | 0 | 9 | .000 | .511 | 16.457 | -0.5708 | SEC | 118 | -2 |
121 | South Carolina | 2 | 8 | .200 | .529 | 16.374 | -0.6054 | SEC | 122 | 1 |
122 | Duke | 2 | 9 | .182 | .528 | 18.787 | -0.6072 | ACC | 120 | -2 |
123 | South Florida | 1 | 8 | .111 | .573 | 15.122 | -0.6345 | AAC | 123 | - |
124 | Texas State | 2 | 10 | .167 | .598 | 22.829 | -0.6602 | SBC | 124 | - |
125 | Kansas | 0 | 9 | .000 | .602 | 15.325 | -0.8220 | Big 12 | 125 | - |
126 | Syracuse | 1 | 10 | .091 | .608 | 20.160 | -0.8363 | ACC | 126 | - |
127 | Louisiana Monroe | 0 | 10 | .000 | .563 | 19.165 | -0.9216 | SBC | 127 | - |
On the formula itself, I decided to graph the results to see what kind of correlation we can determine.
Here’s the graph after Week 14, with the worst teams to the left:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22170246/chart_Week_15_.png)
Here’s what this week’s results did to that graph:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22170251/chart_post_Week_15_.png)
And here’s the final Week 15 graph all arranged from worst to first:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22170256/chart_1_.png)
Let’s remember that I do not have any statistical background other than being better at math than the average journalist (or so they would claim). So I’m interested to know what those who do have mathematical experience have to say about the system.
For an explanation of the formula, go here:
Let me know your thoughts at @Jeff_Sharon on Twitter.