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UCF Rankings: Top Four Unchanged, Coastal Carolina Leaps Cincinnati

Bama and Clemson still on top

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 28 Coastal Carolina at Texas State Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Let’s check in with the latest UCF Rankings, with some shake-ups in the top ten after an eventful weekend before the conference championships.

Remember, the point of these rankings is not to predict the CFP participants or to say who’s playing the best now. Rather, it’s a system for ranking all FBS teams based on their full body of work throughout the entire season, with increasing emphasis placed on the more difficult games a team plays at the end of the season.

Of note this week:

  • Alabama, Clemson, BYU and Notre Dame remain in the top four.
  • Coastal Carolina leaped Cincinnati into the #5 slot after their road win at Troy.
  • North Carolina’s blowout win at Miami vaulted them 14 spots, while Miami dropped 20.
  • UCF fell out of the top ten even though they didn’t play because a few teams finished out their schedule this past week with wins.
  • Interestingly, #3 BYU vs. #12 UCF is an EXCELLENT bowl match-up.

View the full rankings here:

Week 15 UCF Rankings

Rk Team W L W% Opp W% SOS Rating Conf Last Wk Move
Rk Team W L W% Opp W% SOS Rating Conf Last Wk Move
1 Alabama 10 0 1.000 .528 18.512 0.9385 SEC 1 -
2 Clemson 9 1 .900 .524 18.638 0.6835 ACC 2 -
3 BYU 9 1 .900 .494 17.934 0.6645 Ind 3 -
4 Notre Dame 10 0 1.000 .410 15.525 0.5778 ACC 4 -
5 Coastal Carolina 11 0 1.000 .495 20.818 0.5512 SBC 6 1
6 Cincinnati 8 0 1.000 .514 13.512 0.5135 AAC 5 -1
7 Florida 8 2 .800 .439 14.694 0.4667 SEC 7 -
8 North Carolina 8 3 .727 .469 17.358 0.4105 ACC 22 14
9 Iowa 6 2 .750 .415 11.210 0.3989 B1G 14 5
10 Oklahoma 7 2 .778 .420 12.473 0.3959 Big 12 8 -2
11 Louisiana 9 1 .900 .562 20.459 0.3744 SBC 10 -1
12 UCF 6 3 .667 .491 14.308 0.3727 AAC 9 -3
13 Buffalo 5 0 1.000 .317 5.846 0.3650 MAC 15 2
14 Iowa State 8 2 .800 .519 16.032 0.3568 Big 12 11 -3
15 Georgia 7 2 .778 .441 15.388 0.3328 SEC 24 9
16 Marshall 7 1 .875 .390 10.274 0.3314 CUSA 12 -4
17 Liberty 9 1 .900 .208 11.213 0.3265 Ind 13 -4
18 Ohio State 5 0 1.000 .436 6.494 0.2787 B1G 16 -2
19 Appalachian State 8 3 .727 .478 18.056 0.2757 SBC 19 -
20 Tulane 6 5 .545 .508 19.219 0.2577 AAC 18 -2
21 Indiana 6 1 .857 .453 10.605 0.2560 B1G 17 -4
22 San Jose State 6 0 1.000 .451 7.936 0.2192 MWC 23 1
23 USC 5 0 1.000 .333 6.611 0.1984 Pac-12 27 4
24 Texas 6 3 .667 .533 13.885 0.1954 Big 12 21 -3
25 Boise State 5 1 .833 .458 8.271 0.1736 MWC 33 8
26 Tulsa 6 1 .857 .540 13.420 0.1642 AAC 25 -1
27 Northwestern 6 1 .857 .391 9.444 0.1636 B1G 32 5
28 TCU 6 4 .600 .504 15.648 0.1546 Big 12 50 22
29 Texas A&M 7 1 .875 .433 13.843 0.1506 SEC 29 -
30 Toledo 4 2 .667 .389 7.899 0.1444 MAC 30 -
31 Ball State 5 1 .833 .472 8.599 0.1426 MAC 28 -3
32 Rice 2 3 .400 .516 6.861 0.1362 CUSA 26 -6
33 UAB 5 3 .625 .517 12.245 0.1090 CUSA 43 10
34 Oregon 3 2 .600 .403 6.378 0.0987 Pac-12 35 1
35 Air Force 3 2 .600 .517 6.857 0.0917 MWC 39 4
36 San Diego State 4 3 .571 .546 13.353 0.0833 MWC 42 6
37 Nevada 6 2 .750 .420 11.510 0.0752 MWC 31 -6
38 Ohio 2 1 .667 .222 2.936 0.0722 MAC 40 2
39 Western Michigan 4 2 .667 .417 8.271 0.0700 MAC 38 -1
40 Miami 8 2 .800 .536 17.225 0.0658 ACC 20 -20
41 Oklahoma State 6 3 .667 .498 14.223 0.0615 Big 12 63 22
42 UCLA 3 3 .500 .497 8.220 0.0544 Pac-12 41 -1
43 Wyoming 2 4 .333 .437 7.911 0.0541 MWC 34 -9
44 Utah 2 2 .500 .721 5.870 0.0540 Pac-12 62 18
45 Arizona State 1 2 .333 .500 3.779 0.0514 Pac-12 56 11
46 Army 8 2 .800 .348 11.879 0.0315 Ind 58 12
47 Fresno State 3 3 .500 .325 7.682 0.0264 MWC 45 -2
48 Georgia Southern 7 5 .583 .468 20.255 0.0238 SBC 37 -11
49 SMU 7 3 .700 .450 17.826 0.0229 AAC 48 -1
50 Colorado 4 1 .800 .434 6.723 0.0182 Pac-12 36 -14
51 Georgia State 5 4 .556 .525 14.228 0.0155 SBC 49 -2
52 Louisville 4 7 .364 .502 18.592 0.0141 ACC 70 18
53 Washington 3 1 .750 .358 4.539 0.0072 Pac-12 51 -2
54 UTSA 7 4 .636 .468 16.816 0.0050 CUSA 52 -2
55 FAU 5 3 .625 .398 10.814 -0.0153 CUSA 47 -8
56 NC State 8 3 .727 .485 17.851 -0.0159 ACC 53 -3
57 Penn State 3 5 .375 .536 12.261 -0.0167 B1G 66 9
58 Kent State 3 1 .750 .375 4.886 -0.0168 MAC 54 -4
59 Minnesota 3 3 .500 .398 7.671 -0.0232 B1G 68 9
60 Miami (OH) 2 1 .667 .667 4.303 -0.0287 MAC 57 -3
61 Central Michigan 3 3 .500 .528 8.380 -0.0296 MAC 61 -
62 Stanford 3 2 .600 .547 6.725 -0.0300 Pac-12 60 -2
63 Eastern Michigan 2 4 .333 .569 8.700 -0.0324 MAC 59 -4
64 Wisconsin 2 3 .400 .617 7.499 -0.0488 B1G 44 -20
65 Troy 5 6 .455 .444 19.547 -0.0615 SBC 55 -10
66 Wake Forest 4 4 .500 .458 13.039 -0.0621 ACC 46 -20
67 Purdue 2 4 .333 .509 7.713 -0.0630 B1G 65 -2
68 Ole Miss 4 4 .500 .440 10.762 -0.0642 SEC 67 -1
69 Oregon State 2 4 .333 .506 8.573 -0.0765 Pac-12 64 -5
70 California 1 3 .250 .508 5.080 -0.0808 Pac-12 69 -1
71 Pittsburgh 6 5 .545 .504 19.238 -0.0832 ACC 88 17
72 Charlotte 2 4 .333 .468 7.760 -0.1002 CUSA 72 -
73 West Virginia 5 4 .556 .420 13.483 -0.1046 Big-12 71 -2
74 Auburn 6 4 .600 .505 16.760 -0.1118 SEC 87 13
75 Michigan 2 4 .333 .465 8.307 -0.1237 B1G 77 2
76 Maryland 2 3 .400 .593 7.246 -0.1255 B1G 73 -3
77 Washington State 1 2 .333 .644 4.218 -0.1454 Pac-12 79 2
78 Rutgers 3 5 .375 .484 12.050 -0.1480 B1G 83 5
79 Houston 3 4 .429 .603 11.375 -0.1593 AAC 82 3
80 Boston College 6 5 .545 .475 18.751 -0.1707 ACC 84 4
81 Nebraska 2 5 .286 .586 10.682 -0.1762 B1G 80 -1
82 Hawai'i 4 4 .500 .534 12.409 -0.1779 MWC 89 7
83 Virginia Tech 5 6 .455 .608 19.767 -0.1850 ACC 96 13
84 Memphis 7 3 .700 .429 14.634 -0.1861 AAC 86 2
85 Colorado State 1 3 .250 .560 5.632 -0.2103 MWC 90 5
86 FIU 0 5 .000 .468 5.337 -0.2154 CUSA 91 5
87 Virginia 5 5 .500 .523 15.615 -0.2192 ACC 74 -13
88 Southern Mississippi 3 7 .300 .495 13.994 -0.2237 CUSA 98 10
89 East Carolina 3 6 .333 .542 15.287 -0.2274 AAC 93 4
90 Illinois 2 5 .286 .500 10.441 -0.2359 B1G 78 -12
91 Northern Illinois 0 6 .000 .667 9.336 -0.2448 MAC 92 1
92 Arizona 0 5 .000 .677 7.458 -0.2461 Pac-12 85 -7
93 UTEP 3 5 .375 .336 9.737 -0.2464 CUSA 94 1
94 New Mexico 2 5 .286 .550 10.255 -0.2481 MWC 97 3
95 LSU 4 5 .444 .506 15.293 -0.2482 SEC 99 4
96 Baylor 2 7 .222 .541 15.212 -0.2689 Big 12 75 -21
97 Missouri 5 4 .556 .473 13.431 -0.2750 SEC 76 -21
98 North Texas 4 5 .444 .407 11.490 -0.2832 CUSA 100 2
99 Western Kentucky 5 6 .455 .480 16.539 -0.2967 CUSA 101 2
100 Louisiana Tech 5 4 .556 .532 14.035 -0.3029 CUSA 81 -19
101 Kentucky 4 6 .400 .499 16.643 -0.3214 SEC 105 4
102 Texas Tech 4 6 .400 .472 15.310 -0.3237 Big 12 103 1
103 Middle Tennessee 3 6 .333 .502 13.934 -0.3262 CUSA 104 1
104 Kansas State 4 6 .400 .505 16.668 -0.3380 Big 12 107 3
105 Tennessee 3 6 .333 .551 16.837 -0.3385 SEC 113 8
106 Arkansas State 4 7 .364 .481 17.774 -0.3888 SBC 110 4
107 UMass 0 4 .000 .746 6.390 -0.4019 Ind 114 7
108 Michigan State 2 5 .286 .650 11.131 -0.4030 B1G 106 -2
109 Mississippi State 2 7 .222 .544 15.105 -0.4067 SEC 108 -1
110 Florida State 3 6 .333 .517 16.481 -0.4079 ACC 119 9
111 UNLV 0 6 .000 .609 9.049 -0.4191 MWC 109 -2
112 Utah State 1 5 .167 .590 8.517 -0.4255 MWC 115 3
113 Arkansas 3 7 .300 .611 18.079 -0.4262 SEC 95 -18
114 Akron 1 5 .167 .625 9.105 -0.4509 MAC 102 -12
115 Bowling Green 0 5 .000 .650 6.967 -0.4541 MAC 117 2
116 Temple 1 6 .143 .480 10.464 -0.4607 AAC 116 -
117 Georgia Tech 3 7 .300 .560 19.943 -0.4666 ACC 111 -6
118 Navy 3 7 .300 .601 17.868 -0.4878 AAC 112 -6
119 South Alabama 4 7 .364 .499 19.124 -0.5135 SBC 121 2
120 Vanderbilt 0 9 .000 .511 16.457 -0.5708 SEC 118 -2
121 South Carolina 2 8 .200 .529 16.374 -0.6054 SEC 122 1
122 Duke 2 9 .182 .528 18.787 -0.6072 ACC 120 -2
123 South Florida 1 8 .111 .573 15.122 -0.6345 AAC 123 -
124 Texas State 2 10 .167 .598 22.829 -0.6602 SBC 124 -
125 Kansas 0 9 .000 .602 15.325 -0.8220 Big 12 125 -
126 Syracuse 1 10 .091 .608 20.160 -0.8363 ACC 126 -
127 Louisiana Monroe 0 10 .000 .563 19.165 -0.9216 SBC 127 -
Results through December 13

On the formula itself, I decided to graph the results to see what kind of correlation we can determine.

Here’s the graph after Week 14, with the worst teams to the left:

Week 14 UCF Rankings

Here’s what this week’s results did to that graph:

Week 15 UCF results applied to Week 14 graph

And here’s the final Week 15 graph all arranged from worst to first:

Week 15 UCF Rankings graphed

Let’s remember that I do not have any statistical background other than being better at math than the average journalist (or so they would claim). So I’m interested to know what those who do have mathematical experience have to say about the system.

For an explanation of the formula, go here:

Let me know your thoughts at @Jeff_Sharon on Twitter.