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After last Thursday’s tough loss at Cincinnati, the UCF Knights remain solidly in the conversation for a at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. However, sentiment among experts is all over the map:
FINAL: #Cincinnati 60, #UCF 55.
— Jason Beede (@therealBeede) February 22, 2019
ESPN's Joe Lunardi on the loss: "It's not bad, it's an opportunity loss." Says @UCF_MBB still passes the eye-test as a tournament team for him.
But, Lunardi adds he'd "like to see them get one pop" against a top AAC team before Selection Sunday.
Don't understand how someone could watch UCF play and not think that it's an NCAA Tournament team. The Knights aren't just an NCAA Tournament team --- they can advance in the field.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 22, 2019
So what’s the real consensus here?
NET Rankings
First, UCF is 34th in the NET rankings as of games through February 26th.
Let’s look at UCF’s upcoming schedule, with each opponents’ NET ranking:
UCF’s Last Four Regular Season Games
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away | Record | AAC Record | NET | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opponent | Home/Away | Record | AAC Record | NET | Quadrant |
| Feb 27 | South Florida | Away | 18-9 | 7-7 | 72 | 1 |
| Mar 2 | Houston | Away | 26-1 | 13-1 | 4 | 1 |
| Mar 7 | Cincinnati | Home | 23-4 | 12-2 | 25 | 1 |
| Mar 9 | Temple | Away | 20-8 | 10-5 | 56 | 1 |
This is a totally brutal stretch. All four games are NET Quadrant 1 games, meaning they are considered the toughest tier of opponents given those opponents’ strength and where the game is being played. That includes Wednesday night at South Florida, who is not in the NET Top 75.
So far, the Knights are 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games this year, with losses to Houston at home and at Cincy and Memphis. So unless they want to take their chances in the AAC Tournament in Memphis, the Knights have to pick up probably a couple of these games - most likely at South Florida (and hope they stay in the Top 75), and either at home against Cincy or at Temple - and preferably all three of those games. Of course, a win at Houston might obviate that condition outright.
Bracketologists
Pay attention to whatever bracketologist you want, but I prefer to look at them all on Bracket Matrix, which aggregates them all to spit out a field of 68.
Right now (as of 2/26), UCF is predicted to be an 11-seed, with an average seed of 11.4, and the Knights are included in 111 of the 118 brackets aggregated. In general, they are listed anywhere between a 9 and 12-seed.
The teams around them are (with their NET ranking):
- 10-seeds: Texas (37), VCU (36, A-10 Champion), Ohio State (40), NC State (30)
- 11-seeds: Florida (31), Arizona State (63), UCF (34), Temple (56)
- 12-seeds: Seton Hall (64), Minnesota (60), Alabama (49), Utah State (33), Belmont (50, OVC Champion), Lipscomb (46, A-Sun Champion)
Mind you, no at-larges are listed beyond a 12-seed.
Of all these teams, right now, UCF has a higher NET than all of them except Florida, Utah State and NC State. But that’s also with the conference tournaments coming up, which could throw this whole thing into fractal chaos.
So what do the Knights have to do?
Well, it’s simple, really: Win.
But I’d say they must win at South Florida, and either the home game vs. Cincinnati or the road game at Temple. They could lop off either or maybe both of those with a win at Houston, but that’s a tall order.
Any way you slice it, the Knights are firmly on the bubble, but the one thing they have going for them is, unlike many other teams around them, they control their own destiny about as much as any team in the nation can at this point in the season.